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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."