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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans ascending together. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still