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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd